Joel Sherman

Dodgers' deal for Max Scherzer, Trea Turner makes repeat more possible: Sherman

MLB trade-deadline clock ticking on Mets: Sherman

The Yankees just couldn't resist Joey Gallo: Sherman

Willingness to eat contract key to MLB deadline returns: Sherman

Mets desperate to avoid another hellish pitching scenario: Sherman

I am not a big fan of predictions because even when right, they are often wrong.

After all, if you viewed the New York teams as playoff contenders in spring the optimism was, yes, built around dynamic aces in Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole, but also that the Mets and Yankees were going to score. A lot. These were going to be deep, powerful lineups.

But with eight weeks to go on the schedule neither club was in postseason position because of offense failings. If either team was just league average at this point, its standing would be greatly improved.

Instead, only two teams completed the weekend averaging worse than the Mets’ 3.75 runs per game — the last-place Pirates and Rangers, who were a combined 64 games under .500. Seven of the nine lowest-scoring teams were under .500. The exceptions: New York, New York, which when combined is a hell of a town, but separately have been the majors’ most disappointing offenses.

The Mets were teetering near break-even at 56-55. Maybe they can stumble into the playoffs because the Phillies and Braves are ordinary. But that was the theory for the past few months and suddenly the Mets are a third-place team. To this point, nothing has worked. Chili Davis was fired as hitting coach in May, enforcement of pitchers using sticky substances was elevated in June and Javier Baez was added to the lineup in July and the before/after picture each time has been similar — and unacceptable.

The burden to fix this remains spread out, but here are five position players with a lot to lose if they don’t start helping the Mets win:

1. Javier Baez

You know what has been another terrible (multiyear) prediction — anticipation that the free-agent shortstop class for the 2021-22 offseason would create a frenzy never before seen? The visions of uncontained bidding were built around five stars — Baez, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager and Trevor Story. Only Correa has played near his peak. In fact, Brandon Crawford and, especially, Marcus Semien — also both free agents — have outplayed the others.

Lindor at least got paid, signing a 10-year, $341 million pact to avoid free agency. But how much does his underperformance and injury scare off other teams from offering dollars like that elsewhere? Fernando Tatis Jr. has been brilliant when he has played since signing his 13-year, $340 million deal. But the key words in that sentence were “when he has played.” Tatis is on the injured list with a left shoulder subluxation for a second time and (if he returns in 2021) might come back as an outfielder; perhaps another blow to the financial stratosphere of the coming class.

At the deadline, the Dodgers traded for Seager’s 2022 replacement in Trea Turner and put him at second. The Rockies claimed that no club matched their prospect request for Story. The Mets did for Baez, giving up one of their best in Pete Crow-Armstrong. Baez was hitting .176 in nine Met games before injuring his hip.

There is a highlight reel quality to Baez’s game, but 17 walks and 144 strikeouts for the season? There are 26 shortstops with at least 500 innings at the position and Baez ranks 23rd in FanGraphs’ defensive metric (Tatis is the worst).

2. Michael Conforto

Baez might not be the player who has cost himself the most in free agency. Off arguably his best campaign (albeit in a shortened 2020), Conforto had an age/offensive production case to shoot for George Springer’s six-year, $150 million deal signed last winter with Toronto. Now? Will he consider accepting a qualifying offer to re-establish his value?

Much has been made that Brett Gardner is at the finish line with his .202/.320/.306 slash line. Conforto’s is .201/.331/.339. He is a roller coaster offensively who can get hot and he so often seems a bellwether for the club — when he goes well so do the Mets. They need the best version now.

3. Francisco Lindor

On the subject of Springer, the Mets had a choice last offseason to keep their shortstop assets (Andres Gimenez/Amed Rosario) and either deal with that position at the trade deadline or the following winter and sign Springer instead. Since Springer returned for good on June 22, he has been one of the best hitters in the game.

The Mets have not averaged this few runs since 1992. That club was dubbed “The Worst Team Money Could Buy” and its big-money switch-hitting addition was Bobby Bonilla, who came in smiling and saying all the right things. But that went horribly wrong and Bonilla could not reverse it. Another big-money switch-hitter, Carlos Beltran, was able to survive a poor first Mets season.

Lindor’s offensive trend line since his career-best 2018 has been steadily falling. Now, he is out with an oblique injury. Smile and positive words or not, Lindor is going to have to win Met fans over with his bat. He should have at least September to do that.

4. James McCann

Another free-agent move gone bad? The Mets did not wait out the J.T. Realmuto trade market after the 2018 season concerned they would be shut out at the position and signed Wilson Ramos. They did not wait out the Realmuto free-agent market last offseason concerned they would be shut out at the position and enlisted McCann. They just might have signed a backup catcher for four years at $40 million.

His 86 OPS-plus is the lowest by a Met with at least 300 plate appearances since Juan Lagares in 2015 (Conforto is at 87). Maybe the fast-rising Francisco Alvarez could make McCann a backup by midseason 2022, though that would be aggressive. For now, the Mets need more from him.

5. Dominic Smith

The Mets were viewed as one of the NL teams hurt the most by MLB and the players association being unable to agree on a universal DH this year. For Smith could have played first with Pete Alonso DHing. But that was based on the 2020 Smith who had the sixth best OPS-plus (167) out of 142 qualifiers compared to this year’s 110th best (94) out of 135 qualifiers.

Perhaps the 2021 offensive plunge of Smith and Gleyber Torres (116th best) can be explained, at least in part, in asking guys to play defensive positions for which they are not well-equipped and the toll that takes on their confidence. Smith played half-time at his more natural first base last year.

Smith (along with Conforto, Lindor, Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo) were expected to be lefty bats that made the Mets fierce versus righties. But the Mets’ .685 OPS versus righties is 13th out of 15 in the NL (the Mets are due to face three righty starters against the floundering Nationals beginning Tuesday). Robinson Cano was supposed to be gone in 2021 and probably forgotten after another PED-related suspension. But with the DH likely going universal next year, Smith (or McNeil), in particular, could be beginning to damage their 2022 playing time if they do not help the offense perform much better down the stretch.

This story originally appeared on: NyPost - Author:Joel Sherman

Although the Mets have fallen to third place with a 9-15 second half, a source familiar with Steve Cohen’s thinking said the owner is not holding the manager responsible for the poor play.

Cohen believes this is a different time with a different type of player makeup than when George Steinbrenner used to fire Yankees managers regularly in bad periods for the club and/or to try to jolt players into better play, the source said.

Cohen was with the team Sunday in Philadelphia and felt the players had a positive outlook and were prepared to play despite being swept over the weekend, the source said.

Cohen remains under the belief that there is no dominant NL East team._.

Even with the second-half stumbles, the Mets are 2 ¹/₂ games out of first. Thus, Cohen does not see a reason to act impulsively because there remains a third of the season for the Mets to right themselves and win the division, the source said.

This story originally appeared on: NyPost - Author:Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

The Yankees just couldn't resist Joey Gallo: Sherman

Willingness to eat contract key to MLB deadline returns: Sherman

Mets desperate to avoid another hellish pitching scenario: Sherman

Three teams could dictate the MLB trade deadline: Sherman

The blueprint for Yankees to get aggressive at trade deadline: Sherman

When the Mets traded for Marcus Stroman in July 2019, he had just one-plus year until free agency. That made him a strange acquisition because the Mets were five games under .500, hopelessly behind in the NL East and six back in the wild card.

There also was a good deal of industry buzz that too much was sacrificed in Anthony Kay and particularly Simeon Woods Richardson to pursue a Mets pipe dream.

To date, though, the Mets have yet to be burned. Stroman actually accepted a qualifying offer to extend his stay an extra year while Kay has been ineffective in multiple major league stints and Woods Richardson has lost some velocity and pitched poorly at Double-A — albeit at age 20, so with plenty of time to right himself.

The 2021 Mets are in a far more advantageous July position. They have a 3 ¹/₂-game lead in a bumbling NL East in which the Braves and Marlins have never been above .500 this year. The Nationals’ high point was two over and — like the Marlins — they are sellers. The Phillies were once four games over. That was when they were 5-1 on April 7.

It is possible that the Mets could do nothing else at the trade deadline beyond Rich Hill and win the division for the first time since 2015. But that doesn’t fit with a new owner who will want more than that.

Minnesota’s Jose Berrios is in the same category as Stroman in 2019 — an ace on a non-contender who is viewed more as a strong No. 2-3 outside the organization and has one-plus year to free agency. A factor in the Mets wanting Stroman was they knew they would be losing Zack Wheeler to free agency in the way they anticipate that for Stroman this offseason.

The Mets have talked regularly with Minnesota but consistently felt the asking price too high — likely Ronny Mauricio was desired. The Twins were hearing enough from other contenders to believe they would be dealing Berrios before the Friday 4 p.m. trade deadline. The Mets were more locked in with the Cubs. But at what level?

Zach Davies would fall into the Hill-ish bin of inning protection. Kris Bryant would bring a bat, positional flexibility and pizzazz. Craig Kimbrel would help make the Mets more impenetrable over the final nine outs. Some combination probably should not be ruled out.

But there is pressure to do something, even while being atop a weak division. The Mets did not handle a search for a president of baseball operations well, their pivot to a GM brought Jared Porter and humiliation, and their draft might end up being a disaster as they may be unable to do a deal with first-round pick Kumar Rocker by the 5 p.m. Sunday deadline. This is another moment to show a new administration that has done a lot right — namely build depth — can handle a huge moment on the baseball calendar.

Who else is feeling the crunch as the clock ticks:

Cubs

They removed little stuff by dealing Joc Pederson, Andrew Chafin and Ryan Tepera, then went huge by moving Anthony Rizzo to the Yankees for two prospects lower down in the system. Rizzo, in his walk year, is the kind of left-handed tough at-bat/sound first-base defense that should help the Yankees.

There is a general sense that Bryant and Kimbrel will follow and more doubt that Javier Baez will join them. The Cubs are pivoting away from one of the best runs in their history — what they do leading up to the deadline will help determine how fast they return to contention.

Dodgers

The NL West favorites lost two of three to the Giants to fall three games back and what followed Thursday night — word that they were trying to land Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals. There were many in the sport who felt the Dodgers wanted to make a splash not only to win a ninth straight NL West title, but to try to change the subject away from their Trevor Bauer debacle.

This would be quite the splash — near certainly the best starter and best position player traded at this deadline going in one mega-deal to a club trying to repeat as champions.

Padres

These were supposed to be the Dodgers’ main NL West foes after their offseason buildup. But let’s just say if the Rays offer a starting pitcher, run in the opposite direction — or had you not noticed that Blake Snell had a 5.44 ERA? That is why even after obtaining Snell, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, San Diego was pushing for Scherzer. If he was going to the Dodgers, there was expectation of a pivot to Minnesota ace Jose Berrios.

After all, why stop? The Padres are projected over the luxury tax — perhaps the biggest surprise to ever do that — and not only were they losing ground in the division, the Reds were gaining ground for the second wild card. Not making the playoffs at all would be a disaster for this franchise.

Mariners

The clubhouse and fan base were infuriated when thriving closer Kendall Graveman was traded a few days back to the AL West-leading Astros. Abraham Toro was a good return for a walk-year reliever. But it breached faith for a franchise that has gone the longest (since 2001) not making the playoffs among the four major sports. GM Jerry Dipoto promised it should be viewed in the context of a bigger picture in which the Mariners were not surrendering on 2021. Since then, Tyler Anderson and Diego Castillo were obtained. Neither will restore faith. Berrios would and the Mariners were believed among the teams pursuing the Twins ace.

Phillies

After the Mariners, the Phillies are in the longest playoff drought — absent since 2011. There is so much wrong with the structure of the roster and yet the postseason absence, big investments in Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, plus a want-to-win owner in John Middleton and a go-for-it head of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski scream that the team will try to upgrade.

Oh yeah, there is one other reason. The Mets are vulnerable. The Mets have not pulled away. They have left the door open. Like the Mets, the Phillies do not have a deep system. Unlike the Mets, the Phillies do not have glamor prospects like Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty. How much could either team do before the deadline to outfox the other and hold off the Braves?

Tick-tock.

This story originally appeared on: NyPost - Author:Joel Sherman

That is not insignificant, as the Yankees’ aim clearly is to remain under the $210 million luxury tax threshold and they were projected at about $206 million before this deal. For purposes of the tax, Gallo would count about $2.3 million and Rodriguez $1.03 million.

With Texas taking on the rest of the 2021 salaries, the Yankees still have some financial wiggle room and adhere to marching orders to stay under the threshold.

The Commissioners Office has to approve all expenditures over $1 million in trades and the deal was put in MLB’s hands for its approval late Wednesday night. It is expected to be made official some time Thursday. When it is, the Yanks will be receiving Gallo and Rodriguez for prospects Ezequiel Duran, Trevor Hauver, Glen Otto and Josh Smith. 

This story originally appeared on: NyPost - Author:Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

Willingness to eat contract key to MLB deadline returns: Sherman

Mets desperate to avoid another hellish pitching scenario: Sherman

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The blueprint for Yankees to get aggressive at trade deadline: Sherman

Marlins, Reds, Rockies should take advantage of MLB trade frenzy: Sherman

Joey Gallo is the Yankees compromise. They were on the verge of acquiring a lefty hitter and a defender they badly lacked. It came in a package already quite familiar to their lineup — lots of all or nothing and with the kind of swing holes often exploited by the better teams at the biggest times.

Gallo was pulled from the Rangers’ starting lineup before their Wednesday evening game against the Diamondbacks, with the deal to the Yankees nearing conclusion. The sides were still working to finalize all details late into the night.

If concluded, the team with the second fewest plate appearances and homers by lefty hitters in the majors — yep, how did the franchise that plays with a short porch in right field allow that to happen? — would be adding one of the foremost lefty power hitters in the game.

But it comes in an offensive profile with tinges of Gary Sanchez. Since the beginning of last season, Gallo has 35 homers and a .207 batting average. Gallo leads the majors this year with 74 walks. But take a look at the Texas lineup. If you did, you would never throw Gallo a strike. Perhaps, he will get more of them surrounded by better Yankees hitters.

That should lead to plenty of damage. Also plenty of strikeouts.

Gallo was fanning in 32.2 percent of his plate appearances this year — second highest among qualified batters. He has a career in which he has struggled driving in runners from third with less than two outs. His 40.7 this year is actually the best of his career and still lower than the 2021 Yankees rate of 43.8 percent — second-worst in the majors and central to the club’s woes this year.

It is moments like those that you need a good hitter. The Yankees are more replete with dangerous hitters, not necessarily good ones. Gallo will move into that seamlessly. In part because the Yankees’ brain trust just can’t resist this type.

They love the idea of presenting menace at the plate, making pitchers feel a conveyor belt of looming threat. The 6-foot-5 Gallo will fit next to the 6-7 Aaron Judge and 6-6 Giancarlo Stanton and 6-3 middle linebacker that is Luke Voit. When it goes right (and in the case of Gallo now, left) for these Yankees, they will be the Bronx Bombers in full.

Also, would you bet that Gallo works in October? Works against the best pitching when game plans are ever more precise?

The Yankees would be gambling a lot of organizational depth to find out. They did not touch the top of the farm system, but rather used their organizational motherlode, particularly in the middle infield, to form a package to seduce Texas.

The Yankees were willing to do that because they also control Gallo through 2022. But mainly they did it because their two best lefty hitters will now be players who began spring training in Rangers camp. Rougned Odor was the best of a miserable lefty contingent for the Yanks that began Wednesday hitting a collective .197 with 22 homers. Gallo has 25 by himself, and the right-field porch is going to play like Williamsport distance for his might.

He also likely will be asked to man the spacious left field at Yankee Stadium. Gallo won a Gold Glove in right. This is not Stanton. He moves spryly for a big man — agile enough to not be overwhelmed when asked to play center field.

But everything is about to change for him, including the judgments on all phases of his game. Gallo is transplanting from a football hotbed and a team that has the fifth worst record in the majors since he became a full-timer in 2017 to the home office for major league pressure.

The Yankees wanted to try to rally from an underachieving season and punch their way into the playoffs. So they were on the brink of adding another knockout artist — albeit one with a few nuanced touches. The Yankees couldn’t resist their favorite profile.

This story originally appeared on: NyPost - Author:Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

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The twist in this Mets season is that if they win the NL East, no opponent is going to want to see them in the playoffs if their starting pitching — notably Jacob deGrom — is healthy. Yet nothing threatens the Mets even making the postseason more than the well-being of their pitching.

It is why what is being said over and over from opposing teams is that the Mets are relentlessly asking about pitching. They would love impact. But they are not viewed as legitimate players for Max Scherzer. Unless they could involve a third team, they may lack the top-level pitching prospects necessary to land Jose Berrios — if the Twins even trade him.

What remains on the chessboard then are starters such as Texas’ Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles, Colorado’s Jon Gray and the Cubs’ Zach Davies. The expectation is that the Mets will still add an arm (maybe two) before Friday’s trade deadline, but that it might be more of the Rich Hill level of impact.

Their rivals sense they are desperate to protect themselves. For there is a best-case scenario for Mets pitching in which Carlos Carrasco comes back well beginning Friday, deGrom is not far behind, Noah Syndergaard offers a multi-inning September hybrid and the recent dip of Taijuan Walker is the natural ebb of a season rather than a dive for a starter who already has thrown 27 more innings this season than from 2018-20 combined.

What the Mets essentially want to guard against is a repeat of 2007, when they held first place from mid-May until the third-to-last game of the season amid a historic collapse. They blew a seven-game lead with 17 to play because their pitching hit a wall with pitchers like Philip Humber and Brian Lawrence (think the 2007 versions of Jerad Eickhoff) starting games late with Orlando Hernandez physically shot at the end of his career and most of the rest of the rotation working on fumes.

In 2007, the Mets’ ERA rose every month up to 4.93 in August, then 5.14 in September, which included a 5.51 by the rotation — third worst in the NL. The Mets ERA by month this year: 2.90, 3.18, 3.71 and 4.49 going into Wednesday. These Mets have been in first place since May 8 even as their rotation has followed the same negative trend line, climbing to 4.69 in July and obviously ballooned by Eickhoff’s 10-run, 3 ¹/₃-inning debacle Tuesday.

Just about every contender is facing a version of what the Mets are because 1) at this time of year it is familiar to need to add pitching and 2) this year clubs are particularly worried about what the last few months look like since workloads were so disrupted last season with a 60-game season and no minor league campaign.

The Mets’ situation has some extremity to it, though. Expected depth pieces who could give length such as Robert Gsellman, Joey Lucchesi, Corey Oswalt and David Peterson are either out the rest of the year or could be, and doubt swirls on Sean Reid-Foley, Robert Stock and Jordan Yamamoto, too. And in the major aisle, Carrasco and Syndergaard have yet to pitch an inning this year and deGrom has dealt with various injuries and is on the IL for a second time this season.

There is reason for optimism because if the Mets get to a division series and have deGrom, Carrasco and Marcus Stroman lined up, that will be formidable. But they have to get in and have spent the year being unable to pull away from the Braves and Phillies as they both tangle with the .500 mark. That has allowed Atlanta and Philadelphia — despite defects bigger than those of the Mets — to be deadline buyers.

The Braves are at least trying to raise their roster floor with additions such as Joc Pederson and Stephen Vogt and have minor league depth greater than the Mets to do more than that. The Phillies lack prospect capital, but the history of their president of baseball operations, Dave Dombrowski, is that when he has a team with a chance, he goes for it. And one AL head of baseball operations said, “I really do think the team that does the best this week will win the division.”

The Mets might have to hit on the right secondary starter and depth reliever. The pool of relievers is deep, and some teams could just be looking to escape money close to the deadline and all but give pieces away.

As for the Mets doing something bigger, the last time they were in first this late in the season was 2015. They wanted an outfielder as badly as they want a starter now. They completed a deal for Carlos Gomez that was scrubbed because they said he failed a physical. They tried hard for especially Justin Upton, but also Jay Bruce and couldn’t get a deal done. With 20 minutes until the deadline, then-GM Sandy Alderson recommended to Jeff Wilpon that they honor a first-place team by flinching and including pitching prospect Michael Fulmer to obtain Yoenis Cespedes.

Zack Scott, as acting GM, is holding conversations with rivals this week, but the sense among those teams is he is bringing everything home to Alderson and Steve Cohen for a decision. Will the old baseball exec and new owner decide this first-place team deserves for the front office to blink and use a top prospect for a starter such as Berrios?

That would be riveting, but at minimum — if there is no 2015 redux — the Mets must further deepen their staff to prevent a repeat of 2007.

This story originally appeared on: NyPost - Author:Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

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Yankees shouldn't wait to try Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield: Sherman

The Yankees need it to be 1995 again. That was the last time they had a team, with such talent and expectations, that was so confounding and underachieving this late into a season.

The 1994 Yankees had built the AL’s best record when the strike hit in August, leading to the cancellation of the rest of the season. They then added a high-end starter (Jack McDowell) and reliever (John Wetteland) before the next season and were viewed as AL favorites. But their pitching malfunctioned and a malaise hung over the club.

George Steinbrenner was doing George Steinbrenner things — fighting Darryl Strawberry’s agent in back-and-forth press releases for a player he actually was trying to sign and blessing a headache-for-headache trade of Danny Tartabull for Ruben Sierra.

He also took control of trade talks for David Cone. Although his Tampa minor league faction did not want to include a pitching prospect named Marty Janzen for a walk-year ace, GM Gene Michael in New York was all for the trade. Neither side knew which way The Boss would go when he went into exclusive talks with Blue Jays president Paul Beeston. Steinbrenner blessed the July 28 deal for Cone, but the move actually did not initially spur the Yankees, who fell to 54-59 at one point in a 144-game season. That dropped them 16 games behind the first-place Red Sox on Aug. 28, yet just 4 1-2 back in a jammed wild card race.

From that point, Cone was instrumental to stellar rotation work, which helped the Yanks finish 24-6 to clinch the first AL wild card on the final day of the season.

These underachieving Yankees were nine games behind the Red Sox, but just 3 ¹/₂ back of a jammed second wild card race. So should the 2021 Yankees be looking at the best walk-year hitters such as Starling Marte or Trevor Story to be a positional Cone?

Yes, if they have to give up as little as they did for Cone — Janzen (6.39 ERA in 27 games) was the only one of three prospects sent to Toronto that even reached the majors. Of course, that is hard to know at the moment of a trade. Also, those Yankees had not made the playoffs in 14 years and were further motivated to get Don Mattingly there for the first time. Plus, the single wild card then assured a best-of-five series (memorably lost to Seattle). This time the Yanks’ best chance to get in is a second wild card, which assures only a single-elimination road game.

It does not mean the Yankees should give up. All indicators after another devastating weekend, this one at Fenway, is they still plan to buy. But it isn’t like they are sitting on a Core Four (all of whom made their debut in 1995) from which to move forward — unless you think a lot more of Trey Amburgey and Chris Gittens than you should. The Yanks also had similar records to now in 2005 and 2007, yet rallied to win 90-plus games and make the playoffs. Those teams still had championship leadership this one lacks.

And I continue to believe what I wrote last week — that if the Yankees are going to deal their current plight makes it that they should be thinking lefty, athletic and control beyond this season. I mentioned that they had been talking to the Twins about Max Kepler, who makes sense in that scenario.

But I get why Marte and Story are appealing. As opposed to much of this Yankee roster they are good baseball players; they defend and run the bases well. But both are righty (being overly righty is another Yankee problem). Story, in particular, has struggled vs. righties and his overall July has been atrocious (.179 average, .583 OPS, 29.3 strikeout percentage).

Like with Cone, the Yankees could trade for the walk-year player now and try to sign him in the offseason. The Marlins recently tried to extend Marte — their initial offer, according to a source, was two years at $20 million. The talks were shut down in June because the sides were so far apart, so they tried again at the All-Star break with Miami getting to at least three years at $30 million, with the potential for more. But the veteran outfielder wanted four years unless the three-year deal climbed substantially. It didn’t. And the player-imposed deadline beginning play in the second half, July 16, came without a deal.

Marte is aging well, but he will play at 33 next season and the Yanks should avoid long deals with players in this age category. Story might feel the pull to return to his Dallas-area roots in free agency if bids are close. I like Story, but would favor either making a big trade offer for Washington’s Trea Turner or waiting until he is a free agent after the 2022 season — he just is a more explosive player.

One of the Yankees’ prospect strengths is middle infield and I expect they will be over-protective of shortstops Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe (both getting plenty of outside scout admiration too) and more willing to discuss Ezequiel Duran, Trevor Hauver and Josh Smith. They also have good righty pitching depth in the minors. Teams should try to get Miguel Andujar because he is going to hit if healthy and given an extended chance — and there will probably be a DH in the NL next year.

The Yanks have enough capital to be aggressive in this market, especially if they do think this is 1995 again and there is a late run in them.

This story originally appeared on: NyPost - Author:Joel Sherman

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Like a lyric in a popular song, you hear it over and over, in this case from their competitors: The Mets are going for it.

While other teams, such as the Nationals and Reds, were still not firm in their trade-deadline directions, the Mets — along with the Padres, Dodgers and perhaps a few others — are viewed as aggressive within the market. Those clubs were as aggressive as any teams in the offseason, so why stop now when the standings show they are currently playoff teams and their needs — each is going after starting pitching — have become clearer?

I think of a song lyric — “all dressed up with nowhere to go” — with the Mets. They are going to make moves because it is that time of year, and Sandy Alderson’s history is to go for it when his teams are contenders.

But there are factors working against the Mets as they try to upgrade before 4 p.m. July 30:

1. The lack of difference-making starting pitching

The Rangers’ Kyle Gibson was an All-Star, but if the Mets were somehow healthy for October (that means Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard joining Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker), what Division Series game would Gibson even start?

Of course, the Mets have to get there, and even if Gibson regresses to just a competent innings eater, that would help an injury-ravaged rotation now. But how do you price that?

Gibson, at the moment, is the best starter known to be available, with a reasonable $7 million contract for 2022. Teams say the Rangers are asking for a return befitting an All-Star, not a career 96 ERA-plus pitcher who had been strafed for 13 runs on 18 hits in his past two starts.

The problem is it might not get better than Gibson, so why would Texas lower its demands by much? The Rockies’ Jon Gray, talented but enigmatic, is in his walk year and should get traded, but as one starter-interested general manager said, “Good luck dealing with the Rockies. I don’t think they have their act together.”

The Angels have Alex Cobb and Andrew Heaney, the Cubs have Zach Davies and the Twins have Michael Pineda, all in their walk seasons. But this is the level of fine-but-not-great availability right now. Which is why clubs are so interested in whether Minnesota actually deals Jose Berrios.

The Twins want to compete in 2022 (Berrios’ walk year), so the current sense is they will ask for so much in return that no one will meet it. But will some team blink? Because at this moment the Nationals (Max Scherzer) and the Reds (especially Luis Castillo, but also Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Wade Miley) want to try to make the playoffs. The Indians and Marlins have quality young starters and need controllable position players now and moving forward, but there is big doubt if either will trade a starter. The Rockies won’t move German Marquez. The Orioles’ John Means is just off the injured list, so he is not easy to judge.

This is how Kyle Gibson begins to get treated like Bob Gibson in a trade market.

2. The lack of prospect depth

Rivals view the Yankees and Mets as having opposite farm systems — the Mets are strong up top and lack depth while the Yankees are deeper with fewer elite talents. The Mets worked hard to keep their best prospects in the Francisco Lindor trade, and the sense among suitors is they want to do the same in this market.

The industry loves third base prospect Brett Baty. They certainly are high on catcher Francisco Alvarez’s bat and arm, but worry about how his thick body will hold up. There is a bit of a mixed report on shortstop Ronny Mauricio, but even those that are not super high see a talented player with the skill set to move to second or third if necessary. The Mets also are hurt for depth because two of their best prospects, pitcher Matt Allen and outfielder Pete Crow Armstrong, were lost to injury for the season.

The next level begins with pitcher J.T. Ginn, who was due to be promoted from Low-A to High-A Brooklyn to pitch Sunday, and third baseman Mark Vientos, who has flashed power this year, but leaves scouts wondering if he has a position he can handle capably in the majors. One executive whose team has available starters said the Mets left the impression they would consider trading bats off their major league roster. They have been open in the past to moving J.D. Davis. But would they go further to Jeff McNeil or Dom Smith? Remember, the lefty bat of Robinson Cano returns to the roster next year.

The Mets have to at least be open to all concepts, because it is not just the uber-aggressive Dodgers and Padres. Every contender wants to add pitching. Because 1) it is that time of year, and 2) there has never been a year like this. Clubs remain tremulous about what their staffs will look like in August, September and October after a 60-game season last year with no minor league campaign. The fourth-most pitchers (754) and fifth-most starters (311) ever already have been used.

3. The lack of impact of Cohen’s money

The Mets owner has suggested he would go over the $210 million threshold (the Mets are roughly $10 million under) and his competitors believe him. But on what? There currently appear no clear money dumps.

There are suggestions the Mets should try to acquire Trevor Story or Javier Baez to play shortstop until the injured Francisco Lindor returns then move the new player elsewhere on the diamond.

But Colorado has said it will get a fair return or not deal Story, who has indicated he is leaving after the season — and interested teams believe that. By the way, among 138 qualified hitters, Story’s 91 OPS-plus ranks 114th. The streaky Baez leads the majors in strikeouts and is second among shortstops in errors.

Kris Bryant has what the Cubs are calling right hamstring fatigue. But there just might be industry fatigue with the player. The Cubs have been open to trading him since 2019 and their price has not been met, suggesting his name is bigger than his value within the game.

Could the Mets take on, say, a large chunk of the $28 million Justin Upton is owed in 2022 to have to give up less prospect capital with the Angels for a difference-making reliever such as Raisel Iglesias — with a Cobb or Heaney also included? It may take such financial jiujitsu in this market, but how far will Cohen even want to go because — among other items — the two years at $40.5 million the Mets owe the suspended Cano returns next year?

This story originally appeared on: NyPost - Author:Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

There are real questions about Yankees' trade deadline plan: Sherman

Yankees shouldn't wait to try Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield: Sherman

Cubs' selloff may change how we view the Yankees: Sherman

COVID-19 just made Yankees' trade deadline plans even murkier: Sherman

Yankees must find their counterpunching ability: Sherman

The Yankees have to think about next year. That does not mean surrendering now. Not when, despite all that has gone wrong this season, they began Tuesday just four games out of the second AL wild card. Not when seven road games against the Red Sox and Rays, which begin Thursday, can change their trajectory.

But the 57 percent of the season that has been played cannot be dismissed. The Yankees completed that period more likely to miss the postseason than to make it. If they do reach the playoffs, their most likely entry would be as the second wild card, which assures only a sudden-death game on the road.

Thus, reality must trump optimism. Those seven games at Boston and Tampa Bay could go horribly wrong too. Thus, they must consider more than 2021 between now and the July 30 deadline. Can they add players who help the present, but begin to address what is wrong to make the near future better?

Every contender is pursuing this strategy. Thus, clubs with controllable players are placing high prices on them, and that is why the bulk of players traded — such as Joc Pederson, who recently went from the Cubs to Braves — tend to be in their walk years. The players most likely to be traded are free-agents-to-be, such as the Cubs’ Kris Bryant and the Marlins’ Starling Marte.

Nevertheless, I am going to recommend two players I think the Yankees should try to obtain, who would be under team control beyond 2021, because I think they would improve the team both now and later with their lefty bats and athleticism. But I am also using these players as symbols of the direction the Yankees should be heading:

Max Kepler

The Yankees have already inquired with the Twins about Kepler. In fact, Minnesota is a natural place to shop because the Twins have such an abundance of lefty hitters. I also have heard the Yankees have talked about a bunch of those lefties — imagine Luis Arraez, Alex Kirilloff and switch-hitter Jorge Polanco. The Yankees also asked about center fielder Byron Buxton and shortstop Andrelton Simmons.

Minnesota’s focus is to extend Buxton long term, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported. That is a difficult needle to thread. When Buxton plays, he is among the majors’ best two-way players. But he plays infrequently. He is a much better version of another Twins’ first-round draft choice, Aaron Hicks. As talented as Buxton is, however (and he is talented), if Minnesota should fail to extend him and he gets on the market, the Yankees should avoid the potential adding of another injury-prone Hicks-type.

The Twins also are being asked about ace Jose Berrios. He, like Buxton, can be a free agent after next year. But Minnesota, MLB’s most disappointing team, wants to try to win in 2022, so it will consider trading Berrios and Buxton, but wants to make sure to maximize deals for walk-year players such as Simmons, Nelson Cruz and Michael Pineda.

Kepler is hardly on an onerous contract. Including his 2024 option, there are three years at $25.25 million left after this season. So why would the Twins consider trading him? Because in Arraez, Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach, they have lefty bats to play the corner outfield cheaply, can acquire needed pitching in return and can repurpose Kepler’s dollars for other needs.

Why should the Yankees buy him, especially amid a down season (Kepler was batting .207 as play began Tuesday)? Because he is 28 and the belief is that he is more the 36-homer and .855 OPS player of 2019 than the 2021 version. Because he is lefty and athletic enough to play center field until a better Yankees idea comes along.

Adalberto Mondesi

The Royals have been disappointing this year, though not to the extent of the Twins. They thought they could be at least .500. Instead, they are a last-place club. A piece of the reason why is that Mondesi has been on the injured list three times, once with a hamstring injury and twice (including currently) with an oblique. Like Minnesota, Kansas City wants to win as much as possible next year. So why would it consider moving Mondesi?

The Royals learned this year that Nicky Lopez can handle shortstop, and their best prospect, Bobby Witt Jr., is a shortstop who has been promoted to Triple-A to begin the second half. Thus, Mondesi can be used as a chip to fix other areas.

Mondesi does not fit the Yankees matrix in that he does not draw walks. But one of the 2021 Yankees’ problems is how one-dimensional and sleepy they are. Just having, for example, Greg Allen and Ryan LaMarre run the bases aggressively Sunday against Boston was different and energizing.

Mondesi can really run and is a switch hitter with untapped power potential. He will turn 26 next week and cannot be a free agent until after the 2023 season. He has just a career 89 OPS-plus. Didi Gregroius’ was 88, when the Yankees made an upside shortstop play.

There is a 10-triple, 20-homer, 30-steal, defensive-gem level in Mondesi, which could allow the Yankees to move Gleyber Torres to second (I think part of Torres’ hitting problems this year stems from taking on the full-time shortstop burden) and DJ LeMahieu to first. That is a much better defensive team.

Like the Twins, the Royals have been concentrating on moving walk-year guys, though the fact left-hander Danny Duffy went on the IL Tuesday with a flexor strain damages that goal.

Kansas City is not compelled to trade Mondesi, who is about 10-14 days from returning from the IL. The Yankees, however, should be forcing teams’ hands on players who will upgrade them now and really begin to change the dynamic of a redundant roster.

This story originally appeared on: NyPost - Author:Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

Yankees shouldn't wait to try Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield: Sherman

Cubs' selloff may change how we view the Yankees: Sherman

COVID-19 just made Yankees' trade deadline plans even murkier: Sherman

Yankees must find their counterpunching ability: Sherman

Potential Yankees trade target Joey Gallo thriving in baseball's new reality

This time of year exaggerates reactions. Each win. Each loss. It plays larger. Time is expiring for teams to determine exactly who they are — if they still don’t know — and to externally fix what is wrong.

So when a club closes the first half as the Yankees did — blowing a five-run, ninth-inning lead in Houston — and comes back from the break with a quarter of its roster lost to COVID-19 or injury before sleepwalking through a shutout loss to the Red Sox, what ensues is a sell-everything furor.

That is until two straight well-pitched, underdog-spirit victories over Boston brings a “hold on, maybe, buy” rebound.

The Yankees are not alone on vacillation island. The Angels, Indians, Braves, Nationals and Reds also are teetering between buy or sell — and to what levels. A few wins or losses in a row carry additional weight between now and the July 30 trade deadline.

The Yankees want to go for it. They are out hunting outfielders, preferably someone who can play center field, if perfect someone who bats left-handed. They have inquired about Miami’s Starling Marte (a righty hitter). They remain fascinated with Texas’ Joey Gallo. They have wondered about Minnesota’s Max Kepler.

No team at this time of year completely ignores pitching. After all, the Dodgers added to the deepest rotation in the majors by signing Trevor Bauer in the offseason. The Padres obtained Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Blake Snell. Yet due to injury and/or Bauer’s legal problems, those NL West powers are pursuing starting pitching now.

So the Yanks would not ignore that market completely — no team truly has enough. But they appear willing to gamble that the pitching answers come internally. With Nestor Cortes Jr. and Jonathan Loaisiga returning from the COVID-19 list. With Corey Kluber, Luis Severino and Clarke Schmidt returning from the injured list. With Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman rediscovering their best form.

The Mets, conversely, are much more headlong into finding pitching. That was true even before Jacob deGrom went to the injured list. That is partially because they have lost depth pieces such as Joey Lucchesi and Jordan Yamamoto for the season. The fear about having too little pitching — especially with so many concerns about what arms look like the rest of the way after a COVID-shortened 2020 with no minors — is palpable, especially because you essentially upgrade in the next 10 days or the chances to do so virtually vanish.

This year, as part of rewritten COVID rules, there are no August waiver trades, like the one that sent Justin Verlander to the Astros in 2017 or Andrew McCutchen to the Yankees in 2018. No 40-man player can be traded after 4 p.m. July 30. Pure minor leaguers can be dealt and clubs can still add players via waiver claim or signing free agents such as released players. But this is not a bin likely to provide meaningful help.

So how much will the Yanks push into a market that has further complications for them.

Consider that through the weekend, five AL teams outside the East had either the same or a better winning percentage than the Yankees, who were 14-5 against the White Sox, Indians, Astros, A’s and Mariners. But against the three teams ahead of them in the AL East — the Red Sox, Rays and Blue Jays — the Yanks are 13-21.

Beginning Thursday, the Yanks play seven straight at Boston and Tampa Bay. That will take them to deadline day. To even be the second wild card, the Yanks must finish at least third in the AL East. The current occupant, the Blue Jays, not only can upgrade with trades, but can anticipate a strong emotional bump July 30 upon returning to play in Toronto for the first time since 2019.

The Yankee situation also is complicated by how much they are willing to spend. Hal Steinbrenner has said he would consider going over the $210 million luxury tax threshold. I am dubious. Is he really authorizing going over to pursue the second wild card or in a year in which projection models currently have the Yanks missing the playoffs at least 60 percent of the time?

If the Yanks don’t go over, they have, perhaps, $3 million in wiggle room; unless they can free marginal dollars by, for example, including a prospect along with Justin Wilson as they did to trade Adam Ottavino in the offseason.

The Yankees are not surrendering. At least not yet. But there are real questions about just how far they will go in this trade market.

This story originally appeared on: NyPost - Author:Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

Cubs' selloff may change how we view the Yankees: Sherman

COVID-19 just made Yankees' trade deadline plans even murkier: Sherman

Yankees must find their counterpunching ability: Sherman

Potential Yankees trade target Joey Gallo thriving in baseball's new reality

Trevor Story's time with Rockies running out no matter what: 'We don't have to trade him'

Major League Baseball’s biggest story of the first half and the All-Star break was Shohei Ohtani. And that story begins with a new Angels front office lifting restrictions on the righty-pitching, lefty-hitting sensation.

They wanted to see what they had. They wanted the question answered on exactly what they had. Pitcher? Hitter? Both? Neither? The only way to learn was to remove the handcuffs. Ohtani had incurred injuries in his first three major league seasons even with multiple tethers. Overprotecting him was not working.

So the Angels let a colt run and the results have been spectacular. For the Yankees, this should be informative.

To be the best team possible, as much in the future as in this dreadful season, that means putting Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield at least a few days a week. If he breaks down, then he breaks down. Stanton has broken down often even with bubble-wrap treatment, similarly to Ohtani before this season.

Maybe you could understand Stanton not playing the outfield when the Yankees were trying to find out if Jay Bruce had anything left. Or when just Aaron Hicks had been lost to injury. Or before Mike Tauchman was traded. Or when Brett Gardner was showing he no longer could offer much offensive impact. But now Clint Frazier and Miguel Andujar are out, and so is Aaron Judge. The Yankees have played infielders Andujar and Tyler Wade in the outfield and seemed more likely to pull Paul O’Neill from the broadcast booth than to deploy Stanton.

In desperate need of wins, the Yankees’ starting outfield Friday against the first-place Red Sox was Gardner, Tim Locastro and Trey Amburgey, with Stanton as the designated hitter — and that was the right lineup because there simply was no other bat to justify shoving in as DH to put Stanton in the outfield for the first time since he played left field against the Astros in ALCS Game 1 in 2019.

But prior to the break, the Yankees’ best lineup against righties would have been Rougned Odor at second, DJ LeMahieu at first, Luke Voit DHing, Stanton in left field and Gardner as a late-game defensive caddy. That Odor would so greatly improve the lineup speaks to the 2021 roster. Nevertheless, that was the reality, though it never happened.

Now, the Yankees are targeting three games in Miami (July 30-Aug. 1), in which there will be no DH, for Stanton’s outfield debut. That falls into the believe-it-when-you-see-it category, because the Yankees talk as if they are trying to build Stanton up for a daily triathlon rather than to play possibly nine innings in the outfield. Also, by then it could fall into the “why bother?” bin. The trade deadline is July 30 and the Yankees may be sellers, thus, why even risk Stanton’s body? What we know is that before then, they can’t even try to buy, for example, Minnesota’s Nelson Cruz to try to jump-start the offense because Stanton is clogging the DH role.

Also, Derek Jeter could get a good laugh watching Stanton play the outfield. After all, Stanton played a career-high 149 games in the outfield while winning the 2017 NL MVP. Jeter, then the nascent CEO of the Marlins, took grief for dealing his star that offseason for two lottery ticket prospects and Starlin Castro, while having to pay the Yankees $30 million. It is the best move of his administration to date — could you imagine Stanton on his expensive contract becoming a DH-only in a non-DH league?

It also is one of the worst trades of Brian Cashman’s tenure as Yankees GM. The Yankees failed to land Ohtani and pivoted quickly to the Stanton deal, which now feels like original sin in making the roster too righty, too unathletic and too inflexible. Stanton is a rollercoaster offensively, with flaming hot streaks and extended cold streaks in which he misses pitches by as much as any batter in the sport. On Friday, when a depleted lineup needed his might, Stanton jogged into a double play and then struck out three times.

Subtract what the Marlins are paying, and the Yankees owe Stanton seven years at $159 million after this season. If a universal DH is included in the next collective bargaining agreement, could the Yankees eat enough money to find a taker? Would Stanton waive his no-trade clause (he refused trades to San Francisco and St. Louis before being dealt to the Yankees)? Could the Yankees do a long-term deal with Judge, a free agent after next season, without knowing whether or not there would be plenty of DH at-bats for him should his big body slow down to the point at which he can’t handle right field daily?

That is why, at least partially, the Yankees need to find out if Stanton, who will turn 32 in November, could at least handle playing the outfield two or three times a week. They need a roster with more flexibility and, thus, a DH who is not fixed.

If Stanton breaks, he breaks. But it’s not as if the bubble-wrap treatment has led to good outcomes.

This story originally appeared on: NyPost - Author:Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

COVID-19 just made Yankees' trade deadline plans even murkier: Sherman

Yankees must find their counterpunching ability: Sherman

Potential Yankees trade target Joey Gallo thriving in baseball's new reality

Trevor Story's time with Rockies running out no matter what: 'We don't have to trade him'

Savor the greatness of Shohei Ohtani: Sherman

The Cubs are sellers. They already traded Joc Pederson on Thursday, though statistically they had nearly as good a long-shot playoff chance as the club to which they dealt him, the Braves.

The floodgates are open. Kris Bryant and Zach Davies are very likely also to be dealt, Craig Kimbrel probably will be, as will Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo, should Chicago decide to shun nostalgic heart tugs and prioritize restocking a farm system (and lowering second-half payroll) as much as possible in the days before the July 30 non-waiver trade deadline.

Thus would end one of the greatest runs in Cubs history, a six-year period (2015-20) in which they made the playoffs five times and ended a 108-year title drought in 2016.

I wonder if that period could provide perspective for how we think about the Yankees. They have been uninterrupted contenders for nearly three decades. That may be over now, and I certainly have been among those excavating for reasons, digging to explain what has misfired in 2021 and why.

But I recognize that they have had only one July sell-off in this sustained run. That was 2016 when, among other deals, they traded Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs.

Chapman, in Game 7 of the 2016 World Series, permitted a traumatic, dramatic two-run homer to Cleveland’s Rajai Davis to tie the score in the eighth. And the Cubs might only have won because of a well-timed, 17-minute rain delay after the ninth inning that allowed them to mentally regroup and become inspired by a hastily called team meeting headed by Jason Heyward.

The Cubs essentially earned their lone World Series victory since 1908 because they overcame a postseason homer allowed by Chapman — helped by a rain delay. The Yankees haven’t won since 2009, in part, because they could not overcome epic playoff homers allowed the past two years by Chapman, to Jose Altuve and Mike Brosseau.

That 2016 title was supposed to be a springboard to a Cubs dynasty. After all, they had a young nucleus built around Baez, Bryant, Rizzo, Willson Contreras and Kyle Schwarber. But that group was never really the same after 2016.

The Cubs have won one playoff round since, going 3-9 in that period. That does not include losing a one-game tiebreaker for the NL Central title to the Brewers in 2018 after collapsing to not win the division, and then losing the wild-card game 24 hours later to the Rockies. Both defeats came at Wrigley Field.

The season after the Cubs won, the Yankees went to Game 7 of the 2017 ALCS against the Astros. Did Houston cheat by illegally stealing signs to win? Regardless, this felt like the beginning of a Yankees dynasty built around a young positional core of Greg Bird, Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez, with Gleyber Torres (acquired in the Chapman trade) due the following season. But the Yankees were never that good in health or success again, though they are 11-10 in the postseason since then.

One reason the Yankees have not done better is that they haven’t drafted or supplemented their starting pitching well enough and, arguably, began to lean too much on a homer-or-bust offensive philosophy, which began to increase strikeouts and reduce batting average.

Theo Epstein is the most successful baseball executive of this century and he had the same problems. Epstein ran the Cubs from 2012-20. From his drafts, there were 19 players who appeared in games in the first half of this year. Albert Almora (sixth-overall pick), Bryant (second), Schwarber (fourth) and Ian Happ (ninth) were his first four draft picks (2012) and represent higher choices than the Yankees have had since taking Derek Jeter sixth overall in 1992.

These are the other 15 of Epstein’s Cubs draft picks: Pierce Johnson, Duane Underwood, David Bote, Zack Godley, Justin Steele, Dylan Cease, James Norwood, Justin Vosler, Vimael Machin, P.J. Higgins, Zack Short, Alex Lange, Cory Abbott, Keegan Thompson and Nico Hoerner. The best, to date, is probably Cease, who was part of a failed trade with Eloy Jimenez to the White Sox for Jose Quintana — a starting pitching move that did not work out for Epstein and the Cubs.

Concurrently, on offense, the Cubs became a team that by last year — even in winning the NL Central in a shortened season — struck out one in every four plate appearances and had a .220 batting average.

This is not meant as disparagement of Epstein. He is a Hall of Fame executive by accomplishment between Boston and Chicago. It is just to accentuate how hard it is — even with great financial wherewithal and terrific brainpower — to win titles, much less to forge dynasties.

No team has won consecutive championships since the 1998-2000 three-peat Yankees. Perhaps the Dodgers will change that this year. They are the West Coast Yankees in their behemoth state. But until last season, the Dodgers had not won since 1988 despite billions of dollars spent. They captured the division from 2013-19 without a title, gaining a rep of not being able to win it all. Like the Yankees, perhaps they were a victim of the 2017 Astros cheating, just in the World Series.

But even with a terrifically run baseball operation, you see the Dodgers will face issues, such as aging team icons like Kenley Jansen and Clayton Kershaw coming up on free agency after this season, prime core players approaching free agency (Corey Seager and Chris Taylor this offseason, Cody Bellinger and Julio Urias the one after) and a large signing gone wrong (Trevor Bauer).

The Yankees have navigated similar matters the past three decades and remained a playoff team most years and never less than a postseason contender. If that is over now, then perhaps the Cubs’ selloff offers a great tribute to just what the Yankees have been able to sustain.

This story originally appeared on: NyPost - Author:Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

Yankees must find their counterpunching ability: Sherman

Potential Yankees trade target Joey Gallo thriving in baseball's new reality

Trevor Story's time with Rockies running out no matter what: 'We don't have to trade him'

Savor the greatness of Shohei Ohtani: Sherman

MLB Draft would be so much better with trades: Sherman

This already was a trade deadline in which the Yankees were walking a tightrope while juggling flaming axes.

Were they real contenders or not? If the plan was to go for it — and that was the strategy heading into the All-Star break — would Hal Steinbrenner allow the club to exceed the $210 million luxury tax payroll to upgrade; if not, the pool of talent to pick from would shrink unless Brian Cashman could move salary and/or give up more prospect capital to get a trade partner to eat money.

Should a team that was eight games out of first and 4.5 out of the second wild card only make trades that center on adding players with control beyond this year, since this season was looking so bleak?

And that was bleak in an era B.C. — before COVID ravaged the Yankee roster.

The timing — never good, of course — could hardly be worse for baseball matters, since the six players will miss, at minimum, a chunk of games between now and the July 30 non-waiver trade deadline. And all but Wandy Peralta fill roles that are, at least, important.

Since the ownership meeting wrapped on June 3 with the issuing of a memo that there would be greater enforcement of pitchers using illegal sticky substances, the Yankees’ two best pitchers have been Nestor Cortes Jr. (0.82 ERA since then) and Jonathan Loaisiga (1.96). The ERA of all other Yankee pitchers in this period is 5.49. Cortes and Loaisiga tested positive, though Loaisiga is the one positive among the Yankees whose clock to be quarantined at least 10 days began last week while the Yankees were in Houston.

The Yanks are not blessed with many good all-around players. Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela are probably the best combining both sides of the ball. Now Judge and Urshela also have tested positive for the virus. Without a mitigating factor such as a false positive or the presence of antibodies (which Urshela could have after saying earlier this season that he tested positive for COVID in the offseason), the duo will be out until, at minimum, next weekend. Kyle Higashioka, who is the security blanket personal catcher for the only trustworthy Yankee starter, Gerrit Cole, also would be absent for at least that period.

That leaves the Yankees having to replace a lot of vital personnel in a period in which they play exclusively AL East-leading Boston, NL East-contending Philadelphia and AL wild card-leading Tampa Bay before July 30.

The Yanks do not want to sell. They might not have much to attract suitors, especially if they never consider moving Judge and/or that is off the table now. Perhaps if Zack Britton, off the injured list to begin the second half, shows health and results in the short run, his pedigree will win out for an interested team. Luke Voit makes sense in a few locales, including Oakland and Milwaukee. Would the Yankees deal Gleyber Torres at low value? Is the concession speech to maximize a return on Chad Green, who is a free agent after next season?

The Yankees likely will see in the short term if a renovated roster can find an underdog spirit and do enough, especially against the Red Sox, to keep the Yankees on the buy side of the deadline equation. But there were many complicating issues already, including limited signs through the first half that this team was a consistent high-end contender.

And the second half begins with a makeshift roster that just might be pushing the Yankees toward having to alter their strategy.

This story originally appeared on: NyPost - Author:Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

Potential Yankees trade target Joey Gallo thriving in baseball's new reality

Trevor Story's time with Rockies running out no matter what: 'We don't have to trade him'

Savor the greatness of Shohei Ohtani: Sherman

MLB Draft would be so much better with trades: Sherman

MLB All-Star game opt-outs put fans last: Sherman

DENVER — The list of Yankees shortcomings is long, and it’s growing in disrepute in this disappointing season. That list includes a lack of lefty hitting, defensive acuity and athleticism.

But should we include that the Yankees have a glass jaw?

Are the Yankees fake tough guys? Are they bullies who talk the talk, but tend to get walked off in key moments?

Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge said all the punches the Yankees have taken in the first half should make them more resilient in the second half. Those were the right words delivered Monday during a media session 24 hours before the All-Star Game. But what perhaps spoke louder was the empty seat next to them with the placard overhead that read “Aroldis Chapman.”

Chapman was the lone no-show required to attend the media session. He is at least part of the game — as opposed to all four Astros named to the AL team, who begged out for one reason or another. It sure did seem, however, as if those Astros were not at the game because they didn’t want to deal with any questions or lingering resentment from fans and fellow All-Stars over Houston’s involvement with illegal sign stealing in 2017.

But I do wonder if Chapman is representative of the Yankees. Immensely talented, but questionably clutch. Preening in good times, overwhelmed in bad. In the sticky-stuff portion of this season, when he was pumping 100 mph-plus and delivering one devastating slider after another, Chapman was as nearly unhittable as he had been at any point in a largely unhittable career.

In the less glue-y part of the season, however, Chapman’s stuff has regressed, so has his success level and so has his confidence. The defiant, boasting stare has been replaced by bewilderment and despair. During Saturday’s 1-0 win in Houston, Aaron Boone allowed himself to be talked out of going to Chapman, with two out and one on in the ninth inning, by Cole. On Sunday, the manager did not even warm up Chapman as Chad Green was giving away the last of a five-run lead to send the Yankees into the break with what feels like a seven-way tie for their worst loss of 2021.

The final blow was delivered by Jose Altuve, part of the contingent of Astros who shunned the All-Star Game. But against the Yankees, the little Altuve has stood tall. Against them, he has two more walk-off homers — one off Chapman to clinch the 2019 ALCS and one Sunday off Green — than Judge has hit in his whole career.

Altuve’s homer Sunday came a day after Judge homered and tugged at his shirt to troll the Houston second baseman for his refusal to have his jersey removed after that ALCS walk-off. That refusal led to speculation that Altuve was hiding a buzzer that alerted him to what pitch was coming.

Did Mike Brosseau have a buzzer when he homered off Chapman in the ninth inning of Game 5 of the AL Division Series last year, pretty much handing the series to the Rays? Was there ever a better standing-up-to-a-bully move, since the previous month, Chapman had airmailed a fastball over Brosseau’s head and was suspended because it was so blatantly intentional?

And should Judge already have learned a trolling lesson? In 2018, the Yankees won Game 2 of the Division Series at Fenway Park, and Judge loudly played “New York, New York” while passing the Red Sox clubhouse. The Yankees returned to The Bronx and lost the next two games and the series at home. The Red Sox then played “New York, New York” in their clubhouse after winning the World Series — their fourth this century.

There is a theme here. The Astros, Red Sox and Rays are all good at standing up to the Yankees. There is no mystique or aura any longer — perhaps that disappeared when they moved into a new stadium that is more placid mall than gladiatorial hellhole. Maybe it is about the mix of players. Whatever happened to The Savages? The past two years, the Rays’ guerilla style of roster construction and play, for example, has distracted and unnerved the Yankees.

The Yankees begin the second half with four games against the Red Sox at home and they will play seven of their first 10 post-break games against Boston before three at Tampa Bay. Those games will be defining in many ways. The Yankees already are 0-6 against the Red Sox, and if that starts growing toward 0-10 in The Bronx, there will be a toxic level of fury and humiliation.

And the Yankees must contend with a Red Sox squad that, under Alex Cora, plays with an aggression and real confidence that they lack. On Saturday against the Astros, in a 1-0 game, Tim Locastro reached first with one out in the fifth inning and Brett Gardner reached first with two out in the ninth inning with Kyle Higashioka up. Neither time did the Yankees attempt a steal. Speed is pretty much Locastro’s and Gardner’s skill. Why are they even on the team if Boone is not going to demand a steal try in that spot?

You can build a team that sits around and waits for homers. But what you get is a horrible combo of passivity and bullyism — if you land the punch, you win, if not, you absorb all the punches. There are no counters. Can the Yankees summon the fight to get off the ropes of this season or do they really have a glass jaw?

This story originally appeared on: NyPost - Author:Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

Trevor Story's time with Rockies running out no matter what: 'We don't have to trade him'

Savor the greatness of Shohei Ohtani: Sherman

MLB Draft would be so much better with trades: Sherman

MLB All-Star game opt-outs put fans last: Sherman

Making sense of Yankees' underwhelming draft history: Sherman

DENVER — Since the June 3 memo went out, after the owners meetings, saying that MLB would crack down on pitchers using illegal sticky substances, there has been a before-and-after picture offensively. For example, batting average was .236 league-wide before the crackdown, .246 since; OPS was .707 before and .736 since.

When asked if it was easier to hit since the crackdown, Dodgers first baseman Max Muncy replied, “Yes and just leave it at that.”

No surprise, among those who have at least 100 plate appearances since enforcement was upgraded, the Angels’ Shohei Ohtani has the best OPS at 1.277, thanks largely to 18 homers in 34 games. But the next best belongs to the Rangers’ Joey Gallo at 1.276. The slugger not only has 15 homers, but more walks (32) than strikeouts (31) in that time. Gallo’s 72 walks for the season are 12 more than anyone else has. That’s a reflection of his hitting eye, but also that he is pitched around as part of a weak Rangers lineup.

The athletic Gallo is among the best position players mentioned regularly as available in this trade market as the last-place Rangers try to rebuild. Gallo can be a free agent after next season. Padres general manager A.J. Preller was with Texas when Gallo was drafted, and opposing executives expect San Diego to be interested. The Yankees also have consistently had eyes for Gallo.

“In my head and in my heart, I believe I will be a Ranger,” Gallo said about the coming trade deadline. “But at the end of the day, I know it is a business and if the team feels it is fit better elsewhere, I will understand it.”

The third-best OPS since the memo went out also belongs to an All-Star, albeit one who was named but then had to be replaced: Kyle Schwarber. He strained his hamstring earlier this month, but before that, Schwarber had a 1.146 OPS in the non-sticky period with 16 homers in 27 games.

Schwarber, after being non-tendered by the Cubs after last season, signed a one-year, $10 million pact with the Nationals. There is an $11.5 million mutual option for next season, but Schwarber is almost certain to parlay his bounce-back into an attempt to find a strong multi-year deal in free agency. He will turn 29 next March. Like Gallo, Schwarber is a player the Yankees have long been interested in, and they could look toward him to try to gain lefty balance in their lineup.

“I believe if you care about your teammates and invest in winning, then good things will happen,” Schwarber said about gambling on a one-year deal with the Nationals. “I told Washington I was going to invest in winning. As for [a next contract], I just don’t want to look that far ahead.”

By the way, to highlight how bad the lineup that Gallo hits in is, the two worst OPS in the non-sticky phase (minimum 100 plate appearances) belong to his Rangers teammates, Nick Solak (.523) and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (.533). But what should worry the Yankees is not that a former farmhand (Solak) leads this list, it is that third belongs to their current shortstop, Gleyber Torres, at .537.

Schwarber was removed from the Cubs’ core after last season and now that team is likely to be in selling mode between now and the July 30 non-waiver trade deadline. Other members of the champions, such as Javier Baez, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo — all of whom will be free agents after the season — will draw interest.

Perhaps the Cubs player who will garner the biggest return was not part of the 2016 title team — Craig Kimbrel. The closer entered the break with 20 saves, an 0.57 ERA and 54 strikeouts in 31 ²/₃ innings. Just about every contender could use a late-inning boost.

But how the Cubs handle this will say something about their path. Kimbrel has a $16 million club option for 2022, so if the Cubs were trying to contend as early as next season, they could always hold him and still have until the 2022 deadline to move him. Or do they see the value of removing what remains of his contract while gaining prospects more?

“I’ve been traded before,” Kimbrel said. “I was traded on Opening Day once [2015, from the Braves to the Padres]. If it happens, I have dealt with it before.”

Sawx go bust to boom

Before last season began, the Red Sox traded their biggest star, Mookie Betts, and David Price to the Dodgers, partly because of rebuilding, partly as a salary dump to clear up future payroll.

The Red Sox finished last in the AL East. The Dodgers won the World Series. At that moment, Boston seemed far from being a high-level contender. J.D. Martinez could have opted out of the final two years at $38.75 million of his deal and the Red Sox certainly would not have minded that. Nathan Eovaldi had two years at $34 million left and if any competitor had made a suitable offer, Boston almost certainly would have moved the righty.

That was then. On Monday — at All-Star media availability in a large plaza outside Coors Field — Eovaldi and Martinez were separated by Boston closer Matt Barnes, who was just rewarded with a two-year, $16 million extension. Across from them were Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers. That was an AL-high five All-Starsfor the AL East-leading Red Sox.

“I really do think everyone felt in spring that we were going to be a good team,” Eovaldi said. “Last year [shortened amid the pandemic] was different. We felt we had a good team and looked around and had added [Adam] Ottavino and [Hirokazu] Sawamura and good veterans like Enrique [Hernandez] and Marwin [Gonzalez].”

Eovaldi also mentioned as vital the return of manager Alex Cora after a one-year suspension for his involvement with the Astros’ illegal sign stealing in 2017.

Boston opens the second half tied for the AL’s second-best record, 1 ¹/₂ up on the Rays, but eight up on the Blue Jays and Yankees. The Red Sox-Yankees game is the lone one scheduled in the majors on Thursday and is part of a four-game series. Boston already is 6-0 against the Yankees this season. So the Red Sox — a last-place club in 2020 — have a chance this weekend to further the embarrassment of their biggest rivals and, perhaps, turn the Yankees into sellers at the July 30 trade deadline.

Execs expect lefty Duffy to be dealt … if healthy

One player that executives view as likely to be traded in the next few weeks is Royals lefty Danny Duffy — as long as he is healthy. Duffy missed more than a month from May into June with a forearm strain. He has returned to make four short starts and one relief appearance.

There are two hurdles, beyond health, the could affect moving Duffy: He is still owed roughly $7 million of the $15.5 million he is due in the final season of his five-year, $65 million pact. He also exceeded 10 years of service time this season and gained 10-and-5 rights, which allows him to block any deal.

Duffy, who has a 2.53 ERA on the season, is from California and is said to favor a trade (if it comes) to the West Coast.

Unlike Duffy, acquiring Cole Hamels would take just money. The lefty only made one start last year due to shoulder problems after the Braves signed him to a one-year, $18 million pact (prorated for the shortened season). Hamels has not pitched this year, but he will hold a showcase Friday at the Rangers’ Double-A facility for interested clubs. The Yankees will be among those with a scout in attendance. But the Yankees tend to send a scout to all showcases for — if nothing else — due diligence and to gather information.

In his last full season, 2019, the 37-year-old Hamels had a 3.81 ERA for the Cubs in 27 starts.

Hamels is 37 and in his last full season, 2019, he had a 3.81 ERA for the Cubs in 27 starts.

This story originally appeared on: NyPost - Author:Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

Savor the greatness of Shohei Ohtani: Sherman

MLB Draft would be so much better with trades: Sherman

MLB All-Star game opt-outs put fans last: Sherman

Making sense of Yankees' underwhelming draft history: Sherman

Silence after Jacob deGrom proves he's human biggest tribute of all: Sherman

DENVER — Trevor Story was acquired with a supplemental draft pick when the Rockies lost Octavio Dotel in free agency. Bill Schmidt made that selection as Colorado’s VP of scouting. That gives him confidence now, while serving as acting GM, not just to trade his best player.

If the Rockies do not deal Story before the July 30 non-waiver deadline, Story is committed to leaving as a free agent. Before that, Colorado will make the qualifying offer. Story will reject it. And the Rockies will receive a compensation pick between the first and second rounds, like they had when they took the shortstop in 2011.

“We don’t have to trade him,” Schmidt insisted in a phone interview. “It is not a situation where we have to move money or my owner is telling me I have to trade [Story]. It really comes down to if we feel the offer is in the best interest of the Colorado Rockies. We will listen to what people have to say, but we are not just giving this player away.”

This is, of course, a bit of boilerplate. No executive wants to lose leverage in the marketplace by saying he must trade a player. It also left Story in an awkward spot representing the Rockies as the hometown hero in Monday night’s Home Run Derby with a clock running down on how long he will be in a Rockies uniform.

“I am trying to stay in the present and not think about what could happen,” Story said.

Schmidt said he tabled all Story discussions until after the draft and after the All-Star Game at Coors Field. He said there is more than enough time for teams to meet his price. Will the shortstop-desperate A’s jump in? The Yankees? The Reds? Story is owed roughly $8 million of his $18.5 million 2021 salary. So either a new team will have to make a strong financial commitment to add him or Colorado will have to get the kind of prospects to eat dollars to complete a trade.

“It is hard to say what different clubs are thinking,” Schmidt said. “I have no idea what the approach will be. It is like putting your house up for sale. You anticipate getting the value, but you don’t know until people start making offers.”

Schmidt said no matter the enticement, he will not trade his ace, German Marquez, who made his first All-Star team. Schmidt said the strength of the team is starting pitching and he does not want to subtract from it, especially with Marquez on such a favorable contract — including an option season, the righty has three years at $42 million left after this season.

But this is a marketplace in which there is not expected to be a difference-making starter available, so Colorado could likely get multiple elite prospects for Marquez, at a time when they seem far away the next few years from outdoing the Dodgers, Padres and possibly the Giants.

“The Dodgers and Giants are always going to be good because of the financial resources,” Schmidt said. “The Padres are a good club with a good system that should be good for awhile. But we have to do what is best for us and I think that is putting our best club out there.”

So if there is no Marquez or fellow All-Star Max Scherzer of the Nationals or the Reds’ Luis Castillo or the Marlins’ Pablo Lopez, who becomes the best starter most likely to be dealt before the July 30 deadline?

Kyle Gibson is a first-time All-Star at 33, playing for the last-place Rangers. He provides an acquiring team the bonus of a manageable $7 million contract for next season.

So when asked if he expected to be on the Rangers on July 31, Gibson, who has a 2.29 ERA in 17 starts, said, “I don’t know. I haven’t had many conversations [with Ranger executives]. I am sure those conversations could be coming.”

Cubs’ Bryant not fazed by trade rumors

Kris Bryant is there with Story for who could be the best position player traded. The Cubs finished the first half in a 6-19 tailspin, falling from a tie atop the NL Central to third and 8 ¹/₂ games out. GM Jed Hoyer indicated the likelihood of a sell-off. So Bryant, Craig Kimbrel, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo and Zach Davies could all be made available.

Bryant’s agent, Scott Boras, said, “Jed loves Kris Bryant, and well he should.”

Bryant, a four-time All-Star who perhaps has led the majors in trade rumors the past two or three years, said, “Whatever happens, happens. If it does happen, I will be a guy who gives [a new team] my all and plays wherever they need me to play.”

The plan is for rehabbing Mets starter Carlos Carrasco (hamstring) to throw an inning for Coney Island on Thursday. Luis Rojas has said it is possible that Carrasco is brought back short of being fully stretched out to help a depleted Mets rotation. But since Carrasco has not pitched at all this year, it likely is going to take him a few starts to even get there and so early August might be the conservative arrival date.

Wheeler holds no grudge

One starter who got away from the Mets, Zack Wheeler, is a first-time All-Star with a 2.26 ERA and a major league-leading 119.2 innings. Gone are the injuries and lack of fulfilling his skill with the Mets. So how does he feel about his old team that would not go near the five-year, $118 million pact that the Phillies gave him after the 2019 campaign?

“That [feelings toward the Mets] already is in the past by facing old friends and getting that out of the way,” Wheeler said. “At the same time, making with the Phillies is nice. They put their trust in me.”

This story originally appeared on: NyPost - Author:Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

MLB All-Star game opt-outs put fans last: Sherman

Making sense of Yankees' underwhelming draft history: Sherman

Silence after Jacob deGrom proves he's human biggest tribute of all: Sherman

Analytics boss answers all with MLB buzzing about Yankees obsession

Mets could use more of this lefty-hitting dominance: Sherman

DENVER — Imagine the Mets see Kumar Rocker sliding in Sunday’s draft and begin to get a stronger impression that the Vanderbilt righty is going to fall to them at No. 10.

So acting GM Zack Scott calls his Cubs counterpart Jed Hoyer and asks if Rocker makes it to the Mets would Chicago trade Kris Bryant for that pick? Or how about he reaches out to Twins GM Thad Levine and says what prospect(s) plus the rights to Rocker would be enough for Jose Berrios?

If this were possible, would you have watched the first round of the MLB draft?

Because there are two factors that work against deriving huge interest in the draft and turning it into the TV spectacle for which MLB hungers:

1. The NBA gets the residual benefits of the NCAA Tournament raising the profile of many draft eligible players. The NFL derives the advantages of Saturday after Saturday of college football turning potential draft picks into more familiar entities and skills sets. College baseball and, certainly, high school baseball have nothing nationally near the equivalent to increase recognition.

2. This is the more important one: As soon as a player is drafted into the NBA or NFL, he is on the big team and could impact the coming season. Zach Wilson is probably going to be the Jets quarterback. If the Pistons draft Cade Cunningham, he is going to be at least a rotation player immediately.

The Pirates took Louisville’s Henry Davis first and — like just about everyone taken in the first round — he is now one to four years away from making the majors. He is about to be out of sight, which leads to largely out of mind.

No matter what it does, MLB cannot change these two factors. So the only element that can be added to increase the popularity and impact of the event is to allow the trading of draft picks so that established players — players the fans know already and care about — are involved in the draft.

The Major League Baseball Players Association proposed allowing the trade of draft picks in the past two collective bargaining negotiations. MLB has been resistant, concerned that it could be another area in which agents potentially manipulate clients to favorable (read namely big markets) and/or big-market teams could essentially bully and buy their way up the draft ladder.

Well, agents and teams already are manipulating the draft. The 10 best prospects did not go in the first 10 picks Sunday. Plus, clubs have draft pool dollars and are figuring out the best way to spend it and that could be to take a lesser player high to have more to spend elsewhere, for example.

Also, to look at small-market clubs as weak sisters that need MLB’s umbrella protection in this forum is to not pay attention to how franchises are operated now. The best organizations are attempting to leverage and maximize every avenue of player procurement. If you give a well-run team — no matter how small — like the Rays or A’s more ways to gain talent, they will do well with it. If you don’t think the Rays would be playing every angle as a contender again this year — we will trade you two future first-rounders for a stud starter or impact bat — then you are missing how they have built a persistent contender on a shoestring budget.

MLB already has dipped a toe into these waters in recent years by allowing the trading of international pool money and Competitive Round picks, which come after the first and second rounds. It’s time to take the next, more interesting step.

Essentially, you can fashion a second earlier trade deadline before the actual trade deadline and create another must-follow part of the MLB calendar. That is why I would move it a week earlier than the All-Star Game so as not to cannibalize that event, yet be late enough that 1) it probably still comes after the College World Series and 2) late enough in the schedule that contenders and sellers have been defined enough for action.

As an example, the Red Sox entered this year with a perception that they were still building toward a better tomorrow, so the fourth pick garnered with a dreadful 2020 was initially a tool toward that end. But as of draft day, they led the AL East. They would have options to, at minimum, ask the Pirates, would you like to have not just the first pick, but the fourth pick, too, in your rebuild in exchange for Bryan Reynolds or ask the Rockies — in their rebuild — whether to add to the eighth selection would they take the fourth pick plus prospects for German Marquez?

The Yankees haven’t had a pick in the top 12 since taking Derek Jeter sixth in 1992. Would this be the year — with their big club struggling — to inquire of teams in the top 10 about a package of the 20th pick and Gleyber Torres for access to one of the better amateurs available? Would Colorado, about to trade Trevor Story or lose him in free agency, do that for the eighth pick?

This is the kind of intrigue that would be added to the draft and that intrigue would lead to a product that would attract far more interest to the draft process.

This story originally appeared on: NyPost - Author:Joel Sherman

The Mets selected the hard-throwing righty from Vanderbilt on Sunday night when he surprisingly fell to them with the 10th overall pick.

The 21-year-old will receive a $6 million signing bonus. A source had told The Post’s Zach Braziller that there had been whispers of high financial demands.

The slot value for the 10th pick is $4.74 million.

Rocker — whose agreement with the Mets would be pending a physical — had initially been drafted out of high school by the Rockies in the 2018 38th round but opted to attend college. The Rockies then had the 8th overall pick on Sunday, but Rocker being re-selected by Colorado wasn’t an option. MLB rules state that a player must sign a consent form to be re-drafted by the same organization — Rocker declined to do so, and two picks later, he was available for the Mets.

“It was about a war to get him down [to 10th] because we felt the Mets were a good pick for him and a good environment,” Scott Boras, Rocker’s agent, told The Post.

Asked if a deal was done, Boras replied, “The Mets have a strong flavor for him.”

Boras added: “There is an understanding among the participants about what he expects (financially) and what they (the Mets) expect.”

This story originally appeared on: NyPost - Author:Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

Making sense of Yankees' underwhelming draft history: Sherman

Silence after Jacob deGrom proves he's human biggest tribute of all: Sherman

Analytics boss answers all with MLB buzzing about Yankees obsession

Mets could use more of this lefty-hitting dominance: Sherman

Shohei Ohtani, plenty of Mets and Yankees take midseason awards: Sherman

DENVER — If I were Jacob deGrom or ran the Mets, I would be understanding after a first half of greatness, but also injury concerns, why he is skipping the All-Star Game.

I get why Aaron Judge (Yankees), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres) and their teams are most comfortable with none of them participating in Monday’s Home Run Derby.

I see why all four Astros opted not to attend the All-Star Game and subject themselves to more questions and booing related to illegal sign stealing (though only two were with the 2017 champions) and perhaps a snub or two from still-upset fellow All-Stars such as Judge.

I recognize that the first half has left plenty of players banged up and feeling they needed the rest and healing time for the coming games that count in the second half than to show up and/or play in what ultimately is an exhibition game. I feel you Mookie Betts, though it is hard to miss that you homered Saturday and Sunday.

I appreciate what the players association has suggested — that players have been through unprecedented COVID protocols to play last year and this year, leaving many mentally and physically waylaid and in need of a midseason respite to recharge batteries, brains and bodies.

Individually each decision makes sense for the player, for his team. But how is that good for the fans and the game? If everyone thought this way, we would have an empty Coors Field on Monday and Tuesday. This is such a collective middle finger to a fan base who vote for starters, who watch the game, who care.

A decade ago, MLB and the players association codified that players are required to participate in the All-Star Game except for a few exemptions mostly around injury. Players who opt out without a legit excuse — and let’s be real, every team doctor is going to give the snow-day note to excuse his guy — can be fined. And we should expect this will be just another arena in which the league and the union will have bad blood and fights.

But, deep breath here. I am not interested in the punishment. I am interested in the sport being able to see the big picture; to see that if we keep treating the fans this poorly we shouldn’t throw up our hands amazed when they opt out.

It is charging full price for each end of a seven-inning split doubleheader. It is teams and players putting blinders on to chase winning whether it is stealing signs illegally or lathering on industrial sticky stuff or fostering a game of power pitching and power hitting that lasts too long and has far too little action. Who is watching out for the game, writ large? Who can see beyond their individual needs and wonder what would bring the greatest entertainment to the fans?

When the Yanks load-manage Judge out of the starting lineup of a nationally televised game when Ohtani is the opposing starter, does a single Yankee employee — ONE — even ask if it is good to deprive the paying and watching fans of this matchup?

Which brings us to these next few days. At a moment when the former America’s Pastime is trying to reconnect with fans, it has Monday and Tuesday nights alone. No NBA. No NFL. No NHL. It is a moment when the great, magnetic stars of this era can fill up the screen and imaginations. But they can’t do it absent or not participating.

Kudos to Ohtani for seeing the big picture and agreeing to be in the Home Run Derby and the All-Star Game. If Ohtani is doing any less than leading off as the starting pitcher Tuesday — showcasing his unique two-way skill set for the world — than it is a demerit for an industry trying so hard to prove it is not just a local sport. Today Ohtani could walk down most streets in America without notice. That can’t be true after Monday and Tuesday.

The same should be true for Guerrero Jr., Tatis Jr. and even Judge. Yes, the Home Run Derby takes something out of players. Then the players should ask for some modification in rules. But this could have been an epic event with those three, Ohtani, Pete Alonso, Joey Gallo, Colorado favorite Trevor Story and Trey Mancini back from cancer. Good for Ohtani, Alonso, Gallo, Story and Mancini for agreeing to compete. But All-Star Monday night is a huge deal. Think about Josh Hamilton, even in a troubled career, having that Monday night at Yankee Stadium. Indelibly. And forever.

But if this continues as it is going, the Derby will become a version of the NBA Dunk Contest with a player barely in the Trail Blazers rotation winning the event. Congrats to the Brewers utility infielder.

And the All-Star Game will edge toward the NFL Pro Bowl with opt-out after opt-out. Guerrero, Tatis and Judge will be in the game. Good. But deGrom is the best pitcher in the world having a historic season. DeGrom versus Ohtani, even for an inning, is terrific theater, great for the game. DeGrom having to navigate a first inning of, say, Ohtani, Judge and Guerrero, who is not finding a way to a TV for that?

But it makes sense for him and the Mets for deGrom not to attend and subject his body not only to extra pitching, but the rigors on the body of playing at altitude in Denver. I get it. It all makes sense. For deGrom. For the others. For their teams.

But how much can the fans be disrespected before they don’t want to vote for All-Stars or watch their game? How long until they opt out too?

This story originally appeared on: NyPost - Author:Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

Silence after Jacob deGrom proves he's human biggest tribute of all: Sherman

Analytics boss answers all with MLB buzzing about Yankees obsession

Mets could use more of this lefty-hitting dominance: Sherman

Shohei Ohtani, plenty of Mets and Yankees take midseason awards: Sherman

Hal Steinbrenner's loyalty shouldn't cloud this Yankees reality: Sherman

The Yankees will select 20th on Sunday in the first round of the MLB draft. That ties for their fifth highest pick in the past 28 drafts.

In that time, their initial pick has never been higher than 16th, reflecting their winning records for more than a quarter of a century and the signing of free agents that have led to forfeiting picks as compensation. Their first pick has been 30th or later eight times in that period — and on three occasions, 51st or later.

So, though the Yankees have found too little production (even average production), much less impact, in the draft, there are mitigating factors, none more pertinent than where they draft. Keep in mind that the draft involves mainly domestic players — so not international amateurs from, say, the Dominican Republic, Venezuela and the Asian countries who fill about 25 percent of rosters. Players such as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr. and Shohei Ohtani were not drafted.

Also, with other sports growing in popularity, athletic talent has been drained from the draft. So not having access regularly to the top five or 10 picks, where the difference-making skill remains, complicates drafting.

At the completion of the July 4 holiday weekend, there had been 955 drafted players in the majors this year. Of those, 173 — or 18.1 percent — were selected before the Yankees had their first pick.

Through Wednesday, no organization had drafted more position players who were in the top 50 in combined Wins Above Replacement from 2019-21 than the Astros’ four. But three of them — Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman and George Springer — all were drafted before the Yankees had a pick (Ramon Laureano, taken in the 16th round was the fourth).

Having a lefty hitter, such as the Mets’ Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo and Dom Smith would benefit the Yankees. But they were taken 10th, 11th and 13th overall.

Perhaps most famously, the Angels used a compensation pick received when the Yankees signed Mark Teixeira as a free agent to take Mike Trout 25th overall (one pick after they had already grabbed Randall Grichuk). I do believe the stories that the Yankees valued Trout much higher than most of the industry and had him second on their board overall to Stephen Strasburg. Instead, they didn’t pick until 29th and took Slade Heathcott.

Trout was among 44 of 65 All-Stars announced last weekend who were drafted. The Yankees picked two — Aaron Judge and Mark Melancon. But of the other 42, one-third (14) were drafted before the Yankees had a turn.

“American baseball is good,” said Damon Oppenheimer, who has run the Yankees’ drafts as scouting director since 2005. “But the impact in those [later first-round] areas are slim. It is really slim. The difference-makers are the top picks, and picking 20-50, that is a totally different type of player and ceiling. Everything is different on it. It is not the same opportunity to get high-end impact guys.”

To try to compensate, the Yankees have often gambled on big talent that had slipped for a variety of reasons. Heathcott fell into that category as a lefty-swinging, athletic center fielder. So did Andrew Brackman, who was a 6-foot-10 dual-sport athlete (basketball) at North Carolina State, who went 30th to the Yankees in 2007. So did Gerrit Cole, whom the Yankees took 28th in 2008 despite strong insistence he was going to UCLA (which he did).

But what did the Yankees miss? I don’t think it is fair, for example, to ask: Why didn’t the Yankees take J.D. Martinez rather than Heathcott? Martinez was taken in the 20th round in 2009 by the Astros — which means even Houston ignored him for 19 rounds. It is fairer to look at who was taken within 10 picks after the Yankees’ first selections as the general pool of who could have been taken instead. Often there was a better choice or two, but there also was generally a lack of greatness and many who never made the majors.

So just a snapshot from, say, 2010-17 — the drafts that most populate current rosters: In 2010, when the Yankees took Cito Culver 32nd, five of the next 10 never made the majors and the best in that range was Noah Syndergaard. In 2011, the Yankees took Dante Bichette Jr. 51st. Blake Snell went next to the Rays. But he was actually Tampa Bay’s seventh of 10 first-round picks, of which five never reached the majors and the next best after Snell was Mikie Mahtook.

In 2012, with the 30th pick, the Yankees again tried boom-or-bust with high-ceiling high-school pitcher Ty Hensley — who, like Bichette and Culver, never made the majors — and the next 10 picks included Jose Berrios, Mitch Haniger and Joey Gallo. In 2013, the Yankees had the 26th, 32nd and 33rd picks. Two — Eric Jagielo and Ian Clarkin — never played in the majors, but the Yankees had by far the best pick in that area in Judge. In 2014, the Yankees’ first pick was not until Jacob Lindgren at 55, and Alex Verdugo was in the next 10.

In 2015, the Yankees took James Kaprielian 16th. He helped them land Sonny Gray, who finally this year is healthy and pitching well. Walker Buehler was the only quality player in the next 10.

In 2016, the Yankees selected Blake Rutherford 16th. He has yet to play in the majors, but was the key piece in helping the Yankees land Todd Frazier, Tommy Kahnle and David Robertson from the White Sox. Kahnle and Robertson were originally Yankees draft picks; Robertson was part of Oppenheimer’s best draft, in 2006, when the Yankees also landed Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Dellin Betances and Melancon.

But 2016 also was when the Yankees’ West Coast doppelganger, the Dodgers, had a brilliant draft, taking Gavin Lux and catcher Will Smith after the Yankees selected Rutherford. So in consecutive years, the Yankees could have had Buehler and either Lux or Smith rather than Kaprielian and Rutherford, accentuating a reason why the Dodgers have risen while the Yankees are reeling.

In 2017, the Yanks took Clarke Schmidt first. The best currently from the next 10 is David Peterson by the Mets.

Where have the Yankees done well? Attendance. Annually they have among the most drafted players in the majors. They had 38 last year — only the Cardinals (43), Royals (43) and Astros (39) had more. They were tied for second in 2019 with 42 and 2018 with 45. But what has generally been missing is high-end excellence.

Not that Baseball America is infallible, but it gives a picture in the moment. And the Yankees have not had a drafted pitcher in their preseason top-30 rankings since Chamberlain was third in 2008, and no position player since 2002, when Drew Henson was ninth and Nick Johnson 13th.

The Yankees have had just 13 drafted position players in the majors this year: Judge, Jake Cave, Dustin Fowler, Ben Gamel, Brett Gardner, Chris Gittens, Kyle Higashioka, Mark Payton, Rob Refsnyder, Austin Romine, Nick Solak, Tyler Wade and Mason Williams. Judge, Gardner Johnson and Austin Jackson have been by far the best drafted Yankees position players this century. You could say the Yankees have used a general amateur philosophy of finding position players internationally, like Robinson Cano and Gary Sanchez, and drafting pitchers. But they have not exactly excelled with starting pitching either.

Some of this is explained by not having high picks. The Yankees’ development program also is not lauded around the sport. Still, it isn’t as if players such as Cave, Gamel or Solak are leaving the Yankees’ teaching and excelling elsewhere.

Also, it is difficult to draft well. There is a perception, for example, that the Rays and Athletics build through the draft. But they are way more expert at finding underappreciated talent in trades — Tampa Bay had the fewest drafted players in the majors last year, when it won the AL pennant. Few organizations are particularly good at consistently finding talent in the draft. The Cardinals stand out for doing so.

The Yankees are not the best, they are not the worst. But as they try to sustain excellence, they need more from their drafts, regardless of how late they pick.

This story originally appeared on: NyPost - Author:Joel Sherman